MLB Showdown Cards

#Shotsfriday 

               We had some success this week for #Shotsfriday as our Pros had some success. One of our pros, Dr Juice Mark Krom, @Markrom3 had a big hit with a big rookie. Mike Trout homered for our pro continuing his great rookie year. This is Mark's second shot of the year and Trouts first. Another pro who is on a roll is @Tomwyliehart with Albert Pujols. Tom is 2 for 2 in his career. Not bad for a guy who invented the game and runs his own fantasy baseball blog... He knows what he is talking about. Our only AA player @bnelson had a shot as well with Albert Pujols. That is 2 on the year for The Machine and the first for our player on the fast track to being a pro. Remember to send in your picks for #Shotsfriday on twitter and continue to interact with the blog to work your way to your pro card. 

                We all know I love light tower power. We all know I love stats. I am not ashamed to admit it. I want to play Showdown to put the odds in my favor to hit home runs. I have had generated a stat which I calculates the home run rate of any line up. This is of course a variable number so I will explain it. First, the name of the stat from here on is Power Factor. I use it when analyzing mock drafts. I will use it when analyzing your league teams when you all send them to me (hint hint I would like to spot light your leagues if you are running them get in contact with me). This stat is by definition: “The number of home runs created by a line up in addition to the normal probability upon cycling through 3 times.” Wordy I know but the point is that these are home runs you would make compared to if you never got the advantage ever.

                I know you all want me to pull the curtain so you can see the great and powerful Oz so here it is. First we need a reference pitcher. For me this is a 4 control. 4 is a good control average for most leagues. It may not be entirely accurate but it is a good starting place. We take every batter and find the probability of getting the advantage. For this example Mark McGwire 00 (10 on base) has a .3 chance of getting the advantage (1,2,3,4,5 and 6 rolls). We then multiply that number by the probability he will hit a home run when he gets the advantage, For Mark it is .25 (16-20 HR). We take the total (.075) and multiply by 3 (because he will get at least 3 PA’s). His factor is .225 HR/Min game. This ties him with the Bonds 01 and the Bautista 10 as the most powerful players in the game (the Sosa 00 is in the same class but his power is greater against pitchers control 3 or less). All that to say you do this for every hitter add them up and get a factor for your line up.

                What does that mean for the average user? I will answer this by creating the most powerful line up possible (with no salary cap of course). For this example we will be assuming a pitcher of 4. If the pitcher changes the line-up must adjust. Here is the list (choosing the cheapest option)

Mark McGwire (00) –  1B 570 points- .225

Jeff Kent (01) – 2B 580 points - .135

Alex Rodriguez(01P) – SS  640 points- .180

Jose Bautista (10) – 3B 650 points - .225

Barry Bonds (01) – LF 650 points - .225

Sammy Sosa (00) – RF 480 points - .210

Griffey JR (00) – CF 590 points - .188

Mike Piazza (00)- C 410 points- .150

Team total- 1.538 HR/min game

Team Points- 4,570

                According to this stat with this team with no strategy cards this team will close to 2 home runs a game (they will get more than 3 PA’s). This is a humbling thought to think that the most powerful cards in the Showdown world can only yield 2 home runs a game. Keep in mind that this is without a DH. This is also without any strategy cards. This team also could punish starting pitchers and face tired or weak reliever increasing their stats.

                Obviously real teams are going to have less power then this. When building teams you should try and find this number to see if the team you are playing with is as powerful as you would like. I will say in my last league my team was just over 1.000 and I had McGwire, Sosa and McGwire. In our 2011 mock draft the highest Power Factor was roughly .580. Single year team are going to be much less powerful then no restriction leagues.

Last Friday's Shots

@5B_Nelson with Albert Pujols

@Markrom3 with Mike Trout

@Tomwyliehart with Albert Pujols 2

Twitter-Board

@Quicksand3:4

@Eddiezone44:2
@Kylevanpelt:2

@Markrom:2

@Tomwyliehart:2

@LU_TX12:1
@Gregleasure:1
@IamPulseivity:1

@RuffRidinNole:1

@5b_nelson:1

Player-Board
Curtis Granderson:3

Albert Pujols:2

Mark Teixeira:2

Pedro Alvarez:2
Brian McCann:1
Josh Willingham:1

Jay Bruce:1

Adam Dunn:1

Jose Bautista:1 

Robinson Cano:1

Mark Trumbo:1