I feel like this is flawed...Thome only hit 15 home runs last year. Why should he be the guy that is most likely to hit the most home runs over 500 at bats? More than Pujols, Fielder, and Cabrera? Doesn't seem right...
That is a great point and that has a bit to do with 2 things that are more arts then sciences around here.
1: pro-rating. for players with few at bats we pro-rate them to a certain number of AB's each year so that it is universal (players above that AB limit do not get pro-rated down it is a bonus)
2: "Legacy" treatment. Thome got his 600th career homer, many of us assumed his career was over so we often give great players some small boost as a token of our appreciation. In this case he had earned a legit 8, 17-20, 14-16 2B card. We took a double and made it a homer to make it more like his career stats and more of a good sample of his career.
In hindsight a 8, 16-20 HR, 15 2B (take 2 doubles away to give him the HR) would probably have been more appropriate.
This makes me happier that I got Jim Thome.. I really wanted Tex but Mark took him literally right after I knew I should have drafted him.. So disappointing. Glad to know that My top 3 first basemen are the top 3 in power!
Thanks Colbs for the response. Thome has had a great career and I think he is one of the few from that era who was clean, so I'm glad he produced a great card. Guys who are 8s with big HRs on their charts are looking sexier now that you have calculated the metrics. I definitely didn't draft by this strategy, so I will have to keep this in mind for next time since I love hitting the long ball.
Just revisited this blog. Still very surprised guys with a lower on-base are hitting more home runs. Makes me curious: what does the math suggest the amount of home runs a guy like MGwire would hit in 500 at bats? How about the Jose Bautista of 2010?
I feel like this is flawed...Thome only hit 15 home runs last year. Why should he be the guy that is most likely to hit the most home runs over 500 at bats? More than Pujols, Fielder, and Cabrera? Doesn't seem right...
ReplyDeleteThat is a great point and that has a bit to do with 2 things that are more arts then sciences around here.
ReplyDelete1: pro-rating. for players with few at bats we pro-rate them to a certain number of AB's each year so that it is universal (players above that AB limit do not get pro-rated down it is a bonus)
2: "Legacy" treatment. Thome got his 600th career homer, many of us assumed his career was over so we often give great players some small boost as a token of our appreciation. In this case he had earned a legit 8, 17-20, 14-16 2B card. We took a double and made it a homer to make it more like his career stats and more of a good sample of his career.
In hindsight a 8, 16-20 HR, 15 2B (take 2 doubles away to give him the HR) would probably have been more appropriate.
This makes me happier that I got Jim Thome.. I really wanted Tex but Mark took him literally right after I knew I should have drafted him.. So disappointing. Glad to know that My top 3 first basemen are the top 3 in power!
ReplyDeleteThanks Colbs for the response. Thome has had a great career and I think he is one of the few from that era who was clean, so I'm glad he produced a great card. Guys who are 8s with big HRs on their charts are looking sexier now that you have calculated the metrics. I definitely didn't draft by this strategy, so I will have to keep this in mind for next time since I love hitting the long ball.
ReplyDeleteJust revisited this blog. Still very surprised guys with a lower on-base are hitting more home runs. Makes me curious: what does the math suggest the amount of home runs a guy like MGwire would hit in 500 at bats? How about the Jose Bautista of 2010?
ReplyDelete