Sunday, September 2, 2012

MLB Showdown 2011: 400-490 point pitchers

            Not only did the elite guys have great years last year but the whole league pitched better then normal. Today we are talking about players from 400-490 points. These are not ace pitchers but guys who could easily throw really good games. Hard to describe these guys with any sort of story but when the name shows up you will all have stories of your own. These are all guys we hope to see make the jump to the Ace Club next year. I will spot light James Shields season as just the horse of the league. He had a huge part to do with the Rays making the playoffs again. He is putting himself up there as one of the great grinders in the game. Watch the kid pitch a few times, it is something. Now let us see what we have in our mid level market.

            Paying under 500 points for a 6 starter just is not a good idea from what I have seen. Derek Holland and Aaron Harang are 1-14 outs have 15-16 BB, 17-19 1B, 20 2B. The only thing they do is neutralize power. Pingers are going to go have a lot of success getting people on base on the pitchers charts and still getting the advantage enough to ping away. Small ballers are going to have a field day since they don't need to get the advantage at all to manufacturers their runs. +30% of innings will start with the lead off hitter on base.

            5 control pitchers in this range may be the most balanced player you will get. The 5 control will counter most power in the league except the few higher on base sluggers. The Pingers and Small Ballers will have some success because you are looking at all 1-15 outs in this range. The +25 percent chance of people being on base is better then with 6s but still looking at 1 or 2 innings a start on average that are playing right into your opponents strategy. This can be countered with a great arm at catcher. Yovani Gallardo is the best at keeping people from scoring with his 1-8 none advancing out. Dillon Gee is not a worth while pick at all only pitching 5 innings and having a 1-6 none advancing out.

            4 control pitchers may be the best deals players in this class. Jeremy Hellickson at 470 points is going to be the best overall pick He is a 1-17 out who keeps his points down by pitching only 6 innings. He has a small none advancing out 1-6 and small GB 7-9. I still say He is a 3-6 round pick. He will keep people off base even if he does not erase them or hold them. If  you are not in the market for a true ace he may be able to go head to head with other peoples aces with some success. After him there is Gio Gonzalez who is a 1-16 with a 17-18 walk for 460. The pair of walks makes him the only one in this group with that. Walks are much better then singles in a year where people will be trying to create runs. He should go off the board after Hellickson.

            For controls 3 and under there are not a lot of quality options here. For 3s the best player is likely going to be Ryan Volegson for 5 IP and 450 points. His 1-18 out makes him the only one in this range with those numbers. He has a 7-12 GB which will take a few of the people who single off him when he gives up the advantage. I do not think he is an ace but maybe a solid two or three pitcher. James Shields as a 2, 1-18 out who pitches 8 innings for 490 is one of the more interesting players in the entire class. He does not give up a double and has a walk. His 3-10 strike out will strand people trying to steal runs off him. I do not think he is an ace ether but could do a lot of good things in the middle of a rotation.

            With the points the points you are not going to get the total package out of one of these players. You will likely skimp on IP or outs on the chart. The fear with anyone in this range is being unintentional with your pick. Be very careful in this range to clearly envision what you want this player to do for the points and go get a player who can do that. Do not try and get a bargain ace and expect full price results. Also don't pay for extra innings if you have the bullpen. If you do not want to pay for the innings then get a guy who can go 7. This is a no mans land for people without a vision. You do not want to pay 450 points to lose a lot of games.

1 comment:

  1. James Shields is a lot of fun. The 2 is really tough against low OB hitters with punishing charts, see Mark Reynolds. But he strikes so many people out and goes 8 innings. He is the kind of pitcher that keeps you young!

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