Monday, June 25, 2012

MLB Showdown 2011: First Base

The traditionally deepest position in showdown is still that way for the 2011 edition. The top tier is weak with only 2 500+ players, Cabrera and Pujols (570,500 respectively). The power is gone from this years class. No elite or great power coming from our usual heroes so the 5 average power players are the peak of the power mountain. Let us not forget that only 2 players had 40 homers in 2011 and neither played first. The usual suspects of Pujols, Fielder, Cabrera and Howard all hit about 5 few homers then projected. The next tier of players like Pena, Teixeira, Gonalez and Votto all fell short of an unexpected jump. We have come to expect a power surge out of one such player each year and it did not happen. Instead the unexpected homers came from Mark Trumbo with 29. The problem being Marky boy found time to muster up 25 walks in 2011 yielding an on-base percentage of .291 good for a 5 on base. Which leads us to the most important question for those of us drafting the 2011 players for a team: How to do I maximise this mediocrity?



Remember the name of the games is runs. Runs scored and runs allowed. First base has the least impact on runs allowed of any position. So how are these big boppers going to put runs on the board? Eliminate the idea of getting a player who will hit a home run a series. It is a sad thought and for players like me it changes the way I have to draft. The silver lining is this. No one will have that player at first base from this class. If you try and run a diet power team this year 5 players have average power and they are Cabrera (11), Fielder (10), Pujols (9), Teixeira (8), Thome (8). Depending on where they are hitting in the order and what your budget is will influence who you should prefer. If you want someone to bat third the choices are Cabrera and Pujols. Miggy gets on base a lot more, walks once more and has 2 more doubles with 2 higher on base. He also costs 70 points more. If you have the points and only want to hit home runs take him. He will be on base for other peoples homers. If you want to get one of the beast center fielders or Braun to bat fourth then get Pujols. You will have 2 speed A's through the heart of the order. I normally do not recommend that for a power team but lets face it. It is an odd year. Carry a steal card or 2 and rely a little less on the long ball...you have to. These two guys are the only first basemen who should even be thought of in the first 5 rounds.

If your first basemen is scheduled to bat fourth on a power team then it is Fielder or bust. He is a 10 for 470. He doubles too much for my liking but again it is a flawed year. I like his price and his power. I will live with his double plays because I love a 1-2 out on his chart. Put a Mike Stanton or Robinson Cano behind him and take your chances. If Fielder can be slid back to the 5 hole then he is also the best option the as well. If not then Thome and Teixeira are the best bets for a power line up in the 5 or 6 spot. I prefer Teixeira here for a few reasons. I always budget more then 410 for my first basemen so points is no problem. The speed B is an upgrade over Thomes speed C (8). Switch hitting is nice for cards in an RBI spot. The +1 defence is normally almost a none factor but this year it may open up the opportunity to stretch a little on middle infielders. Thome is obviously the bargain basement player. Hats off has 3 less outs on his chart yet he walks up to 11 instead of Tex's 10. If you get him go spend 600+ points on center field. All 3 of these guys are 6-10 round players.

For you Money Ballers, small Ballers and Pingers you are in luck. The cup is over flowing with un-fun players this year. For you Money Ballers eat your heart out. The second cheapest 10 who is eligible to start a game is in this class. Let me be the first to introduce Casey Kotchman. A 270 point 10 who has the bonus of being a speed B and a +1 fielder. Obviously no homer, small double (2) and big out (1-5). Hey, you get what you pay for. If you want to load the line-up with cheap on base or some how pencilled your first basement to bat 1 or 2 in the line up this is the guy. This guy is a 6-10 round player. I know how you on base maniacs are though. Some none committal financial wuss will take him earlier. After that my poor Money Ballers look at Konerko and Gonzalez for your 3-4 hitters and Helton for your 2 or 5 hitters. Pingers I would only imagine you guys taking Pena as your 310 point 4 hitter. All of these players are 10-15 round players. Small Ballers and Pingers tend to be draft weenies so don't be shocked to see reaches here.


Small Ballers have a few options based on order position. For 4 hitters there is Gonzalez and Helton who both are 10's who single with an 8. Again both should go 10-15 but don't be shocked if there is competition for these people due to definition overlap. For 3 hitters Pujols and Votto are both speed A's. For 5 or 6 Tex fits best. With Freeman and Sanchez as acceptable second picks. For a 2, 6 or 7 hitter Jesus Guzman and James Loney are serviceable in the right line up. Freeman, Sanchez, Guzman and Loney should all be 16-20 picks. Best bench players are Daric Barton who is a B(15) 7 on base +1 fielder for under 100 points and Mark Trumbo who gives you the chance to punish someone for trying to steal an inning with a tired/low control pitcher.

1 comment:

  1. Great analysis. Can't say I disagree with you-Cabrera and Pujols are by far the class of this position. I feel dirty if I don't pick power at first base, BUT I guess I might go the tweener route if I built my team around Jose Bautista and Robinson Cano.

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