MLB Showdown 2013: Starters +600 points
No
matter how much east coast bias you can muster there is something you have to
admit: that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Many of
us wanted Justin Verlander to be the best pitcher of this era. Others thought
Roy Halladay would get 2 more great years out of that arm. Others want Matt
Harvey to be the next… well the next Clayton Kershaw. 3 straight ERA titles and
5 straight years with an ERA under 3 with 30 or more starts in all 5 of those
years. Max Scherzer had another great year but the honor goes to Kershaw.
The two
sixes you can choose from in this class both cost 610 points. They also both go
7 innings. I think Scherzer is likely going to be the pick of more players. As
a 6, 20 2B, 18-19 1B, 16-17 BB, 1-9 none advancing out he is a very predictable
chart. He counters power with his control. He counters speed with his high none
advancing out and his pair of walks. He won’t win the ERA title in any league
but he also won’t give up too many crooked numbers. He also can reset the
bullpen and go 8 or 9 innings every time. Hisashi Iwakuma is the more
interesting of the two options. With his 6 control 19-20 2B, 18 1B, 17 BB, 1-6
none advancing out he is likely the less desirable of the two. Roughly once a
game he is going to give up a leadoff double. There is more power and less
speed in this year’s class which makes him not a complete bust. I still think
if he is going against number 1’s he is going to struggle even if they cost less
points. He is a nice option if you went for a dominant 1 who doesn’t go deep
like Bucholtz or Fernandez.
The last
+600 starter in this class is Clayton Kershaw at 670 points as a 5, 19-20 1B,
17-18 BB, 9-11 GB, 1-8 none advancing out who can pitch 8 innings. He easily
resets the bullpen. He doesn’t give up an extra-base hit. He does not require a
huge catcher arm to be effective because he has a decent none advancing out. He
can use an infield but doesn’t need to be built around one. He also can walk
players behind steals and doubles. He is going to be very difficult to knock
out of games without stacking strategy cards against him. He is the only
starter I recommend taking in the second or third round. Like most single year
drafts starting pitching is always going to be deeper than hitters. You want a
run producer first and then pick this guy up. A sub 600 pointer at an expensive
position for the first pick is ideal like Hanley Ramirez make the best pair.
Since
these 3 will be compared to one another because of the point totals I rank them
Kershaw, Scherzer, Iwakuma with Kershaw going round 2 or 3 in an 8 man league (later
in smaller leagues). Scherzer likely should wait till round 4-5 and Iwakuma a
round or so after him. There are no 4 or lower controls worth 600+ points this
year.
I like all three, but it's clear who is the top SP this year. The best part of these articles is going back to the stats and being like 'Oh schnap, I didn't realize Clayton was this dominant last year!'
ReplyDelete