Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Monday, March 18, 2013
MLB Showdown 2012: Catchers Over 300
Yadier Molina | 2012 | 10 | 390 | B(16) | 9 | R | 20 | 0 | 18-19 | 17 | 10-16 | 7-9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0 |
Carlos Ruiz | 2012 | 10 | 370 | C(9) | 6 | R | 20 | 0 | 16-19 | 0 | 7-15 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 |
Miguel Montero | 2012 | 10 | 340 | C(12) | 8 | L | 20 | 0 | 18-19 | 0 | 13-17 | 5-12 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 |
AJ Ellis | 2012 | 10 | 330 | C(11) | 6 | R | 20 | 0 | 18-19 | 0 | 13-17 | 7-12 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
Jonathan Lucroy | 2012 | 9 | 380 | B(14) | 4 | R | 19-20 | 18 | 16-17 | 0 | 8-15 | 4-7 | 3 | 1-2 | 0 |
John Jaso | 2012 | 9 | 320 | A(18) | 4 | L | 20 | 0 | 17-19 | 0 | 11-16 | 4-10 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Friday, March 8, 2013
#ShotsFriday
Time
for me to define my terms for everyone since we use a little bit of custom
vocabulary around the blog. The first terms we are going to define is the first
player I always advice in our positional break downs. The “power hitter” or
“power player” are terms we throw about the most but what is the real meaning
of it? What about the other vocab we use when describing hitters.
Of all
the terms and player types we use I feel this is the easiest to understand.
That may be because this is my favorite play style. The manager who plays a
power team has 1 primary goal. That is to lead the league in home runs. Every
other goal is a sub goal. Winning is not enough for this player. A 2-2 series
tie with 8 homers is a won series. A 1-3 series loss with 10 homers is a tied
series (12 homers may be considered a win). These players believe style points
matter. A solo homer by an 8, 17-20 HR player is worth more than a BB, steal,
bunt, out (fb) sequence. As far as pitching goes… survival. The question is
“how are we getting 9 innings”?
Elite Power: When determining how Power
Managers select Power Players here is our official terminology (which we will
attempt to remain consistent on) We have “Elite Power” which currently in the
Showdown world there are only 5 players in this club Mark McGwire 00/01(10/10),
Sammy Sosa 00(8), Barry Bonds 01(10) and Jose Bautista 10(9). This is defined
as a 10, 16-20 HR or trading 1 on base for 1 extra homer. Bautista is a 9,
15-20 HR and Sosa is an 8, 14-20 HR. In theory an 11, 17-20 HR or 7, 13-20 HR
would both qualify but no such player exists currently. Oddly enough these guys
actually play well together. Sosa at 480 points and the McGwires as 570 and 580
are not much more than the average middle of an order.
Great Power: The next tier we have is
the “Great Power” players. These guys are the 10, 17-20 HR players. My favorite
type of players and the ones I am drawn to the most are the 9, 16-20 HR
players. Some of the notable members of this tier are Sammy Sosa 01 (9), Larry
Walker 00 (10), Brian Giles (10), Jason Giambi 01 (11), Carlos Delgado (11),
Barry Bonds 00 (9), Alex Rodriguez 00,01P (8,10) Jose Bautista 11 (11) and the
famous Jeffery Hammonds 00 (9…ish). The question with these guys is what else
do you want but power? Bond 00, Rodriguez 00 and Braun 12 (10) are all speed A.
Positions are still limited as 2B and C don’t even have these players available
(but Bautista 10 plays 3B as an Elite Power). These guys tend to be nearly as
expensive as the Elite Players but are also a hair more well-rounded. I am not
saying the Elite Power guys are better players but these guys cost roughly the
same and hit less home runs.
Good Power: The “Good Power” players
are found in most line-ups and are even more diverse than the previous two. 10,
18-20 players and equivalent are in even the thinnest sets, last year’s 2011
set had only 1 great power player so teams had to supplement with a slew of
Good Power players. That is a long fall from the original 00/01 sets that have
plenty of players in the above slots. 09 and 10 had fewer options in the
previous 2 tiers but had a good mix. Last year this tier was as good as it got
for all but 1 team. 2012 offers a few more Great Power than 2011 but this tier
is a bit thinner. In multi-year drafts however expect to see a lot of these
players in the 6-7 spots in lines and potentially the 2 hole.
Power: Regular old “Power” players are
nothing really to write home about but they have value. A 10, 19-20 is pretty
darn average but some of the lower levels actually have chance for cheap
homers. 8, 17-20 players usually are in the 300 and change point range. The
higher on-base guys are tweeners to me. They will hit homers but you pay for
them to do other things as well… like get on base. That is no small thing but I
am a Power Player. That isn’t what I want. I want round trippers. I spent under
700 points for Ryan Howard and Giancarlo Stanton last year both 8, 17-20
players. Both had multi-homer games for me. That is what this strategy is
about…ringing out every homer through a line-up as possible.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
|
Line Up
|
Rotation
|
Bullpen
|
Bench
|
Total
|
(4)Rays
|
2,090
|
1,640
|
540
|
60
|
4,330
|
(13) Padres
|
1,290
|
1,050
|
560
|
44
|
2,944
|
Predictions:
Rays have a sizeable almost 1,400 point advantage. The 800 point line up
advantage is probably plenty enough to secure a win in this series. The almost
500 point advantage in starting rotation comes down to maybe the most
interesting matchup in the series. James Shields faces his perfect lineup (no
not cheap) a lineup full of walks and few homers. With his big K he could
really strand the Padres. This could be a classic case where the Rays may want
to try and use someone other than Shields to win the series to save him. I
predict Rays in 5.
|
Line up
|
Rotation
|
Bullpen
|
Bench
|
Total
|
(5)Red Sox
|
2,480
|
1,130
|
640
|
104
|
4,354
|
(12)Royals
|
1,440
|
1,040
|
460
|
72
|
3,012
|
This is
a 1,300 point difference and if all goes to plan for the Red Sox a sweep and
worst case scenario 4-1 win. The Red Sox have five 10’s (Ortiz has to come off
the bench) compared to the Royal’s lone 10 (Alex Gordon). The Royal’s may get
lucky and steal some runs with the bottom of the line-up. Beckett and Lester
have a chance to be 2-0 going into their next series while Royals plan is to
win games 3/6 and hope to steal 2 others. The Red Sox may toss their bullpen
out the window in order to start Aceves their reliever. The hope the Royals
have 1 major thing going for them: the 2011 Red Sox have chocked before…not
sure how Showdown produces that.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Time Machine Catchers
Joe Mauer 09- First 11 On-base not to have 1B eligibility? Easy
question now with the into but it is none other than Joe Mauer. In 2009 there
were 4 eligible 11 OB players (Giambi 01, Delgado 01, Pujols 09) and only Mauer
played a position other than 1B. That meant if you really did want to have more
than 1 you needed to have Mauer. He would sport a 19-20 HR, 17-18 2B, 9-16 1B
with speed B(14) +5 arm all for 570 points. He clubbed 28 homers and 30 triples
that year while winning the batting title as a catcher with a .365 average.
With more and more players being added to the mix he has lost some luster but
he still is in the elite offensive catcher class.
Monday, March 4, 2013
MLB Showdown 2012: Catchers Below 290
|
1-2 | 0 |
Friday, March 1, 2013
#ShotsFriday
Here is
a strategy many people would like for me to define. The “Pingers” is a term
that I actually stole from my days in Magic the Gathering… the card game nerds
understand me here my jock readers judge me. The term is used in that game
basically to describe a card that repeatedly does the smallest amount of damage
but can perpetually do this act throughout the game. The point is that these
cards inflict a series of small damage to hopefully add up to enough to win.
Thus the MLB Showdown version of
the Pinger looks very much like a series of near identical players. Due to the
5,000 point cap many players operate using roughly 2,000 or so points per
batter. This in an NL line-up yields a 250 point average per play. 250 points
usually buys you a 9, speed B, 20 HR, 18-19 2B player. There are slight
variations depending on position and such but that would be my definition of a
Pinger type player. Pingers hate speed C players since speed B players don’t
steal and their players have few extra-base hits. This means double-plays are
killer and take away chances to fight probability with attempts. For whatever
reason these players cannot stand the idea of a player not having a homer.
Since 10 on-base, 20 HR, speed B players run roughly 350 points that is too
much to have a truly homogeneous line-up. They also have this irrational fear
of 8 on base and below assuming they never get the advantage. They will use them
more than Money Ball players (which we will discuss next week). The theory here
is anyone in the line-up could be the star on any night. We will peak at some
variations of Pinger players.
The lead-off hitter can sometimes
be slightly different than the rest of the line-up. This may be the traditional
10, speed A, no homer that many players covet. The problem here is those
players are 300+ points and really put the pressure on the 3-4 hitters. That
means more points need to be spent on the 3-4 hitters to be successful. That
throws all the averages off and the theory falls apart. The solution? 9, speed
A no homer. Trading a speed for a homer is not uncommon since the points come
out to about a wash. This appeals to the conventional wisdom of having a highish
on-base with high speed at the top and stays in the 250 ish point range. These
lead-off hitters are going to be out produced by lead-off hitters in a less
homogenously distributed point line-up.
2 hitters are likely the most
proto-type Pinger player in the line-up, 3-4 hitters are where these guys can
distort their line-up. You won’t see a 500 pointer in a true Pinger line-up but
you may see a low 400 pointer as a 3 and a high 300 pointer as a 4. In my
experience this is a 10, 19-20 HR speed B as the 3 and a 9, 18-20 speed B as a
4. Scary? Not at all compared to other people paying +1,000 points on those
spots. Pure Pingers may spend as low as 700 points for these spots and attack
you with pure depth. Depth is hard to counter with enough rolls.
5-6-7 hitters may look like
triplets here. The 7 hitter for some Pingers is the tell on how dedicated they
are to the theory. A 9 or 8 speed C with 19-20 or 18-20 HR may show up here as
a type of book end. This is almost entirely dependent on who is coming up last.
Assuming an NL line-up the 8 hitter is usually a punt for almost every line-up…
except true Pingers. True Pingers are going to save 100 points in their 3-4
hitters to spend 100 on their 8 hitter. This guy may take the 50 points must of
us budget for the 8 hole and beef it to 150 or more. An 8 19-20 or 9 who can’t
homer may be lurking near the pitcher. This gets tough because thin bullpens
late in games don’t have spots for easy 0’s. Don’t be shocked if you see
pitchers batting 8 and an 8, speed B, 20 HR in the 9 hole.
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